Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
