A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
