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An individual made nearly half a million dollars on the ouster of Nicolás Maduro just before it was publicly declared, leading to inquiries about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of American actions.

Market Movement in Wagers

Predictions made on the forecasting site, a blockchain-based service, that the Venezuelan president would be removed from office by the month's conclusion increased in the hours before President Donald Trump announced on January 3rd that Maduro had been seized.

One account, which became a member recently and took four positions, all on the Venezuelan situation, earned over $nearly half a million from a starting bet of over $32,000.

The identity is unknown. The anonymous account had only a string of letters and numbers for identification.

Odds Fluctuate Before News Break

Platform data shows that traders put the odds of a political change at just 6.5% in the afternoon of the prior Friday.

However the odds had jumped to 11% by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the early hours of the next day, suggesting a sharp shift in positions just before the public announcement was made.

"This specific wager has all the hallmarks of a transaction based on non-public details," commented an industry expert.

A small number of other platform users also earned significant sums from bets on the same outcome.

Legal Questions Grows

Some lawmakers are growing concerned.

Proposed legislation put forward on recently seeks to ban public officials from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a market.

Industry Context

Prediction markets have surged in popularity in recent years, with users able to bet on everything from sports outcomes to political events.

Prediction markets were examined under the last presidential term. However it has found a more favorable environment during the current presidency.

Using confidential knowledge is against the law in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the event betting industry.

A company executive for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against such activities of any form."